Here is the Fixtures Rates in PDF Format: Freight Report Week No 44
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Fixtures List: Fixtures Report Week 40
Market Comments: As it became known at the beginning of this week, Turkey has introduced an asymmetrical measure complicating documentary procedure for importing wheat, corn and oilseeds in the country. Now Russian Exporters will have to apply for additional permissions for delivering their goods to Turkey, which can trigger protracted delays and cancellings of already fixed vessels in the short run, as well as a decrease in freight rates for voyages from the Azov Sea in the long run.
According to the latest information received from Traders, in other countries buying Russian wheat, grain prices has shown radically negative dynamic, as market participants have been trying to resell wheat intended for Turkey to other countries where possible.
Importers in the region are using the desperate position of Traders and have already started to knock down rates on new contracts, which leaves Ship Owners no hope for any extra freight premium and will lead to a decrease in rates.
Ship Owners, from their side, suppose that freight rates must keep at the current levels for some more time due to another new closure of the Kerch Straight (11-14/10), impacting directly the amount of tonnage in the region.
The chances are, by the moment of opening the Straight, most part of the fleet stuck on the Black Sea side can be cancelled for arriving late and due to Owners’ reluctance to move the laycan dates. In this case an extensive amount of free spot tonnage can appear at once.
The main beneficiary of the current situation, apart from non-Turkish Importers, is Charterers of non-grain and cheaper cargoes, who for the first time in so long have got an opportunity to regulate the freight market in the region.
Fixtures List : FR #38
Comments: The Azov region is experiencing a period of uncertainty. Due to the strengthened ruble and current freight rates level Traders have suspended sales and new contract conclusions. As reported by some Exporters, for normal cargo turnover to recover, either the rates must go approximately 5$ down, or the dollar must stabilize at a level higher than 59 rubles.
Since Ship Owners have been forcing Charterers to focus on voyages to the Turkish Black Sea coast, local warehouses at the Port of Samsun with the total storage capacity of 300 000 tonnes cannot receive any more goods, and the market participants has been faced with a problem of slow discharge at this particular port. In order to avoid further demurrages, cargo receivers are relocating their port of delivery to Marmara.
Some Traders are showing confidence that freight rates will decrease soon, expecting a substantial number of vessels to open simultaneously after the long idle time in Turkish ports.
Traders in the Azov region are trying to evade CIF sales, preferring to ship their goods on a FOB basis, with a view to reduce risks associated with searching for proper vessels.
The shortage of fleet remains critical in the most remote river ports on the Volga. Since the opening of navigation, voyages there have been relatively rare, which led to an accumulation of significant cargo volumes at river silos. Charterers keep increasing their ideas for freight rates, but this has little impact on the actual amount of shipments.
According to some Exporters, tariffs for railway delivery to sea ports have reached parity with the cost of analogical transportation by water, which reduces the possibility of further rates increase for voyages from river ports.
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Fixtures Report: Glogos_Freight_Report_Week_38
As it usually happens, with the coming of the autumn the weather factor has begun to make significant adjustments in the plans of Charterers and Ship Owner. During the last week, the eastern wind in the Azov region was keeping the water level at -1,5 to 0-meter marks (in Azov/Rostov at about 2,9 m), which practically paralyzed work in the ports. A line of 20 ships waiting for a water level which would allow for the safe and smooth loading and beginning of their voyages has accumulated on the outward roads of Azov Port.
The water level in Yeisk is 3,4 to 3,7 meters now. It allows to load and set sail vessels with the carrying capacity up to 3000 metric tons. Large-sized vessels, that have not managed to load in time in high water, have to idle in their berths now, in the hope for a rise of the water level. In a similar way, a line of about 10-15 vessels has shaped on the outward roads of the port of Yeisk. In such conditions, the most demanded vessel type proves to be Omskiy, with the draught of 3,26 m. This allows Ship Owners to pump up the rates for it particularly. The limitation draught in Temryuk is staying at the same level as earlier – 4,6 m, therefore a lot of Ship Owners will have to change their minds in favor of this port. As a result, freight rates in Temryuk and other more or less deep-water ports must decrease soon.
The offshore eastern wind is expected to be prevailing in the region up until October 5. As long as the wind direction does not change, there will be no hope for the betterment of the draught limitation in Azov ports.
In market participants’ opinion, such delays most seriously affect major exporters performing their grain transshipment programs at Caucasian anchorage stations, as such events disrupt the regularity of voyages and, as a result, can lead to the idleness of the heavy-tonnage fleet.
The consequences of the water level decrease could have been less grave, but part of the fleet on the way to their loading points got stuck in the Black Sea, due to the storm continuing for the most part of the week. That is one of the reasons why the market did not face a wave of cancellings or a drastic hike of freight rates.
In the Caspian region, the shipping market is retaining its bias favoring Ship Owners. The main trend of the end of October is the rumors about the withdrawal of a substantial amount of the fleet from the region for wintering in the Azov and Black Seas. According to information received from the port of Astrakhan, Caspian fleet last winter was almost 1,5-times larger in number than in the same period a year before. For more, the cargoes transported practically did not include wheat, subjected to an embargo.
Taking into account these factors, market players are more closely monitoring the number of fleet this year. By preliminary estimates, the amount of cargo in the region is expected to be bigger, yet not significantly, this year than a year before, and the amount of fleet smaller. A more definite forecast will be possible closer to the end of the navigation period.
Fixtures List: Glogos_Freight_Report_Week_37
|Low water levels are forecast in Azov sea ports due to the looming high offshore winds. There is a possibility that many vessels will face the difficulties on exit from the ports after loading, since the water level will allow to berth in ballast, but to start a voyage fully loaded will be impossible. Moreover, the draft limitations will affect not only Rostov and Azov, but deeper-water ports such as Yeisk. At the moment, the water level at Rostov/Azov varies from 3.7 to 3.9 m, in Yeisk – from 4.1 to 4.5 m, and according to forecasts, water can go further 1.5-2 m down.
We observed a similar situation this August, as some dry-cargo vessels spent several weeks idling in Rostov/Azov in anticipation of a proper water level that would allow them to sail out to sea.
Voyage delays lead to an accumulation of subsequent lots of cargo in the ports. As a result, the increase of freight rates in the Azov region will continue, especially for cargo orders ex shallow ports of Azov and Rostov.
In order to avoid idle time, a lot of Ship Owners are changing their preferences in favour of deep-water ports, Temryuk, Taganrog, Yeisk, and freight rates particularly in that ports will possibly decrease to some extent as a consequence of the tonnage supply increase.
As of the end of September, there is a deficit of open tonnage – most of the fleet will be opening in the first half of October. Since Ship Owners have enough time until the opening dates, they are not in a hurry to conclude fixtures, counting on further growth of the market. As a lot of vessels will be opening at about the same time, Charterers are expecting that the market will possibly go down.
Freight rates in the Azov region are fluctuating approximately within the same figures as a week ago and depend on the specifics of negotiations. Fleet demand still does not exceed the amount of available supply, but Charterers decisively refuse to improve their offers, explaining this by limitations set in sales contracts and by the existing opportunities to delay voyages.
According to operative information received from the port of Samsun, the problem of insufficient storage capacity has been resolved by enhanced cargo on-carriage from the port, which has allowed Charterers this week to actively offer short voyages to the Black Sea, so much sought by Ship Owners. Freight rates for Azov – Black Sea voyages have decreased a little since Ship Owners prefer them above all others.
Due to a severe lack of Russian-flagged tonnage, the situation has most severely affected Charterers (or Sub-Charterers) of project and general cargoes shipping in transit via Russian rivers. As a rule, budgets for such voyages are drawn up long before their realization, therefore, considering last year’s situation with shipments, a lot of market players were seriously wrong in their budget calculations for logistics, since such
On the eve of October, Ship Owners has already started to plan their fleet’s positions for wintering. Taking into account last year’s situation in the Caspian region, many Owners are trying to plan the closest voyages so as to employ their fleet on winter jobs in the Azov area. Therefore, transit voyages from the rivers and the Caspian Sea are expected to be possibly in big demand in the end of the navigation period.